Eurasia Group | May's Move: A Stronger Mandate for a Hard Brexit 
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A Stronger Mandate for a Hard Brexit 

Eurasia Live 
18 April 2017
and A union flag is seen near the Houses of Parliament in London, Britain April 18, 2017. British Prime Minister Theresa May called on Tuesday for an early election on June 8, saying the government had the right plan for negotiating the terms of Britain's exit from the European Union. REUTERS/Stefan Wermuth
why she called for an early vote

June will be good to May. 

Prime Minister Theresa May has called for early snap elections, to be held on June 8. The vote will be a referendum on May's vision for Brexit. 

Why call elections now? 

A jumpstart on the opposition While the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party (SNP) will likely fight hard for an anti-Brexit platform, May knows that Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party is in historically weak position. May's chances of expanding the party's majority in Parliament are strong and she knows she will never have a weaker Labour opposition than is currently the case under Corbyn. And there is a small window of opportunity to strengthen her mandate at home before the Article 50 negotiations begin in earnest. 

Shores up support at Westminster There was not a majority in the Houses of Commons or Lords for a hard Brexit. But if May secures a bigger majority, she will have that popular mandate. The growing prospect of a soft Brexit alliance forming between pro-EU Tories, Labour, the Lib Dems and SNP will likely be demolished in one fell swoop.

Unity is the Tories' best weapon. Pro-EU Tory MPs will not defy May's line during the election. They are therefore much less likely to fight for a soft Brexit once she has won an election. The Lords, however, will still have a soft Brexit majority. Peers will pressure the prime minister, but without backing in the Commons the unelected second chamber won't have much sway.
 
A stronger hand in EU negotiations European Union leadership will arguably also have to treat the British prime minister with more respect—not someone who, as Nicola Sturgeon recently reminded May, had never won an election as leader. As for timing, May's ability to get the election out of the way will allow her to negotiate a transitional deal with EU leaders without the political pressures of another election.
 
This makes a cliff-edge scenario, one in which Britain leaves the EU without a deal on future trade relations, less likely.
 
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Mujtaba (Mij) Rahman leads the firm's analysis on Europe, helping clients navigate the ongoing Brexit crisis, EU-Turkey dynamics, bailout politics in Greece, European Central Bank politics and policy, and EU sanctions policy against Russia.
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