Risk 1: The G-Zero wins

Eurasia Group has warned for over a decade now about the dangers of a G-Zero world: an era when no one power or group of powers is both willing and able to drive a global agenda and maintain international order. That global leadership deficit is growing critically dangerous.

In 2025, this is a recipe for endemic geopolitical instability that will weaken the world's security and economic architecture, create new and expanding power vacuums, embolden rogue actors, and increase the likelihood of accidents, miscalculation, and conflict. The risk of a generational world crisis, even a new global war, is higher than at any point in our lifetimes.

The central problem facing the global order is that core international institutions—the United Nations Security Council, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and so on—no longer reflect the underlying balance of global power. This is a geopolitical recession, a "bust cycle" in international relations that can be traced back to three causes.

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