Risk 9: Ungoverned spaces

This risk stems from a deepening G-Zero (please see Top Risk #1: The G-Zero wins) where the world's most powerful actors—especially a politically divided and dysfunctional America—are abdicating global leadership. This vacuum causes greater geopolitical conflict, disruption, and instability; reduces global governance and multilateral cooperation on global public goods; and emboldens rogue-state and non-state actors. It also leaves many people, places, and spaces around the world—and beyond (please see Box 5: Tragedy of the shrinking commons)—thinly governed and forgotten. Critical global commons like outer space, the seabed, and even airspace are shrinking as conflict zones expand—highlighted by Russia's downing of an Azerbaijani plane in December 2024. Missile strikes are now the leading cause of air fatalities, forcing commercial airlines to reroute around growing swaths of contested territory.

There are no international powers both willing and able to bring stability to these places or help the victims of the G-Zero. Donald Trump's instinct toward unilateralism and retrenchment in US foreign policy will worsen their plight, and the efforts of civil society or other actors won't fill the void. No one will be held accountable for what happens inside these spaces, including to the people living within them. The human toll is particularly devastating for the most vulnerable—UNICEF reports that more than one in six children globally now live in areas affected by conflict, a percentage that has doubled since the 1990s.

To read the full risk, download the report.