SIGNAL: Europe's elections, North Korea's crisis, divided ruling parties

This week, Europe's elections swing back toward the European Union, North Korea stays hot and we rank divided ruling parties.

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Here we go!

The Noise This Week

Are Europe's elections this year going to be one long string of Brexit repeats? Probably not. This week saw pro-EU candidates gaining ground in three key races. In France, former center-right Prime Minister Francois Fillon found himself eating his words. He had promised to pull out of the race were a formal investigation opened into his practice of employing his family in political jobs. It was, and he didn't, likely limiting his support to a hard core of supporters. And while anti-euro campaigner Marine Le Pen is facing legal risks of her own, independent candidate Emmanuel Macron has consolidatedcentrist support through an alliance with another regular presidential contender, Francois Bayrou, a first step toward building a coalition that can beat Le Pen in the second round. That puts the most vocally pro-EU candidate in a strong position.



In the Netherlands, far-right euroskeptic candidate Geert Wilders had to resume campaigning amid flagging polls, after claiming security concerns were preventing him from actively campaigning. An interview with his brother, who opposes his policies, described security measures that kept Wilders cloistered for more than a decade, underlining the importance that his image, as opposed his presence, has played in driving his political prominence.

In Germany, center-left chancellor candidate Martin Schulz is posing a vigorous challenge to Chancellor Angela Merkel. Schulz's Social Democratic Party is sapping strength from the nationalist Alternative for Germany, which had won breathless headlines as the German manifestation of the populist-nationalist phenomenon. Instead, Germany looks likely to make a choice between Merkel, who is staunchly pro-Europe, and Schulz, a former European Parliament president whose supporters have adopted the semi-ironic campaign slogan, “Make Europe Great Again.”

One area where the EU is trying to exercise its greatness Macedonia, which would someday like to join the EU and NATO. But it first need to get past this week's constitutional crisis. The country's president has denied a request by a majority coalition in parliament to form a government, claiming that the parties are acting essentially as a third column for ethnic Albanian interests. The EU sent its foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, but she arrived to pronouncements by the Russian foreign ministry that the EU and NATO were trying to provoke a crisis. Even if the big votes go Brussels' way — and that's hardly guaranteed — the EU is in for a rough year.

Also in for a bumpy year: North Korea, where tensions are entering an annual phase of escalation around regular U.S.-South Korean military exercises. North Korea is an area of foreign policy where U.S. President Donald Trump seems to be taking the un-Trumpian step of relying heavily on his advisers, as action is awaiting a policy review by the National Security Council. Notably, while Trump's campaign-trail rhetoric about making U.S. allies pay more has solidified into real demands for NATO budget increases, even making it into his address to Congress this week, he has quietly dropped the parallel request he made repeatedly of Japan and South Korea. Still, the moment is delicate, as the South Korean impeachment process means there is no leader in Seoul capable of building a personal rapport with Trump, as Japan's Shinzo Abe has done. Whoever wants to become South Korea's next president, we recommend they learn to play golf.

Self-Promotion Interlude: Watch Eurasia Group's Darias Jonker discuss the divisions within South Africa's ruling ANC party.

 

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Ranked: Divided Ruling Parties

There's nothing like unified political power to divide a party. Donald Trump's Republicans are just one example. Around the world, parties that have clawed their way to victory have quickly found themselves facing off against their own members for control. Here, in rough order of how likely they are to tear themselves are apart, are governments where success is splitting the victors.

5. Germany's CSU-CDU. Merkel governs as the head of a long-standing center-right political alliance between her Christian Democratic Union and the smaller Christian Social Union. The two parties have always united behind one candidate for chancellor, but have faced a serious falling out over Merkel's decision to welcome refugees into Germany. Last year, the CSU's leader, Horst Seehofer, who has been pushing for a cap on refugee admissions, warned that his party could “go it alone.” But facing a growing threat from the center-left SPD, which is polling well under Martin Schulz, Merkel and Seehofer have papered over their differences. The two allies will go into the election united, with Seehofer stressing that his party will “put its own accent” on Merkel's policies.

4. The United States' G.O.P. After their surprise victory in November, Republicans have struggled to define a concrete agenda for the nation. Key divides span foreign policy — old-guard senators want to push back against Russia and resist efforts by the White House to cut funding to the State Department — and domestic policy. That split is starkest on health care, where there is complete agreement on the goal, to repeal and replace Obamacare, but as yet no consensus plan to achieve it. Tax reform, similarly, has broad appeal, but the devil is in the details, like a proposed border-adjustment tax, which has dividedthe House leadership and the White House. The feel-good glow after Trump's speech to Congress may not last when it comes to haggling over budget lines.

3. Italy's Democratic Party. The fallout from a failed constitutional referendum last year continues to shape Italian politics. Matteo Renzi, who called for the vote, resigned as prime minister shortly after it failed, but his Democratic Party (PD) retained control of the government. Now that party has split over whether Renzi should attempt to return to power. His decision last month to resign as party leader, as the first step toward new elections to restore his mandate, triggered an outcry from a more leftist group with his party. That group has now broken off to form a new party, weakening the government's majority. The net result is that the main center-left party in Italy, which Renzi is likely to still control, will go into the next round of elections with a smaller base of support, possibly empowering its populist opponents.

2. South Korea's conservatives. The ruling party in Seoul has been in chaos since allegations emerged late last year that Park Geun-hye, who became president in 2013 but has since been suspended, had given political power and patronage to a private confidante. Park's impeachment awaits a formal judgment by the constitutional court, but in the meantime, her party has fractured over whether to continue to support her. One faction split off in December and attempted to convince former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to run as its candidate in the upcoming presidential election. That failed when Ban bowed out. Since then, the remnants of the party has re-branded, changing its name from Saenuri to Liberal Korea. Without a standard-bearer, its future is murky.

1. South Africa's ANC. The party that has governed South Africa since the end of Apartheid is at war with itself. The ANC is politically dominant in the country, so whoever takes control of the party has a very good chance to be the next president. The current president, Jacob Zuma, has presided over a campaign against his finance minister, Pravin Gordhan, who has seenquestionable legal charges against him come and go. Other members of the cabinet have threatened to resign if Gordhan is shuffled out of cabinet. Meanwhile, Zuma's ex-wife, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, is a leading contenderto succeed him in an internal contest that will come to a head at a party conference in December. But no matter what happens then, the divisions within the ANC are likely too stark for reconciliation. The time of the one-party state in South Africa may be close to an end.



Your Weekly Bremmer:

 

Watch the World in 60 Seconds from Charlie Rose.

Hard Numbers

70 walls are in place around the world today to protect national borders, compared to a dozen when the Berlin Wall fell in 1989. Can't say we didn't warn you.

4,000 Iraqis have fled Mosul every day since the operation to the western half of the city began, the latest indicator that ISIS is more deeply entrenched there.

448 million fabricated social media posts are released by the Chinese government each year, according to a recent study. Fake news isn't just a Western phenomenon.
 
165 feet is the expected height of the funeral pyre for the late Thai King Bhumibol Adulyadej.

5,806 people live on a Maldives atoll reportedly being purchased by the king of Saudi Arabia, who plans to vacation there soon. Austerity is a relative term in the kingdom.

Words of Wisdom

“It is some kind of infamy. What is now happening in the Western media, and particularly in US media, I believe, is manifestation of media vandalism.”

- Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, reacting to flurry of reports about contacts between the Russian ambassador in Washington and Trump campaign officials. Bonus points for criticizing the Western media via Russian-controlled state news.

Signal is written by Matt Peterson (@mattbpete) with editorial support from Gabe Lipton (@gflipton). Don't like what you read? Feel free to yell at us on Twitter or just reply to this email.