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Superforecaster Fridays: Withdrawal agreement approval by House of Commons (update)

egx
1 February 2019

This week's forecast
When will the UK House of Commons approve a Brexit withdrawal agreement?

The Superforecasters currently assign a 48.7% probability that the UK House of Commons will not approve a Brexit withdrawal agreement before 2020, although the odds of approval before the current Article 50 negotiations expire at 11pm on 29 March 2018 have recently risen to 22.1%.
On 29 January, MPs in the House of Commons backed an amendment for Prime Minister Theresa May to replace the current Irish backstop with “alternative arrangements,” re-opening negotiations with the EU with less than two months until the end of the current Article 50 negotiations process. Sterling's strong rise against the dollar since the beginning of the year has begun to tail off, in part due to May keeping the prospect of “no deal” on the table.
Recent developments in Westminster show growing momentum for a cross-party deal that would include permanent membership in the EU customs union, helping to ease concerns about the Irish backstop. Even though this plan risks splitting the ranks in both the Conservative and Labour parties (Conservative Euroskeptics oppose stronger regulatory alignment with Brussels, and Labour does not want to be seen supporting May's deal), both May and Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn have incentives to reach a deal. Meanwhile, other structural factors point to a compromise on the customs union issue, including the desire in both parties to deliver on Brexit (and avoid a long Article 50 extension), concerns about disruptions to the manufacturing sector and the desire to keep the UK intact. The key to a cross-party compromise would be Corbyn allowing Labour MPs to defy the party line and support May, allowing him to save face.
Even if the UK House of Commons approves a withdrawal agreement before Article 50 negotiations expire on 29 March, a small extension would likely be required for implementation.

Each Friday, eg x clients have the opportunity to submit potential forecast questions to the Superforecaster network. Selected questions are reported back to eg x clients each week, with periodic updates provided on previous forecast questions. Good Judgment® helps clients quantify subjective risks for better decisions. Their cutting-edge methods and network of professional Superforecasters deliver accurate and early foresight. Learn more about this forecast and Superforecasting™ techniques here.

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