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Superforecaster Fridays: Ninth European Parliament

egx
14 December 2018

This week's forecast
What percentage of seats will political groups that oppose further European integration hold in the Ninth European Parliament?

The Superforecasters currently assign a 47.5% probability that political groups that oppose further integration will hold between 20% and 25% of seats in the next European Parliament. Euroskeptic groupings in the European Parliament currently occupy approximately 20% of seats, but next year's European elections will exclude British parties—including the Conservatives and UKIP—who currently represent a large share (3.7% of seats) of Euroskeptic MEPs, indicating an overall rise of Euroskeptics elsewhere in the EU.
The Euroskeptic parties likely to make the biggest gains in May's European Parliament elections are Italy's Lega and Five Star, Germany's AfD, Poland's Law and Justice, Hungary's Fidesz and potentially France's National Rally (formerly the National Front). While there have been exploratory talks between Euroskeptic leaders like Lega's Matteo Salvini, National Rally's Marine Le Pen and Hungarian PM Viktor Orban over a potential Euroskeptic alliance, Euroskeptics are divided by regional interests and may not be able to cooperate effectively to combine into one list—there are currently three different Euroskeptic lists in the European Parliament. The biggest losers will be in the center-left S&D group, where establishment left-wing parties in Germany, France and Italy are set for large losses and will suffer further from the exit of the UK's Labour Party.
In the context of weak leadership in France and Germany, next May's European elections will be a key inflection point for European leadership. Since his election on a strong pro-European platform in 2017, French President Emmanuel Macron had hoped to use next year's European Parliament elections in May as a springboard to launch an EU-wide movement to usher in reforms. However, the gilets jaunes protests have rocked his administration and prompted him to make budgetary concessions, further undermining his credibility among EU partners, particularly on Eurozone reform.
Meanwhile, the narrow victory of German Chancellor Angela Merkel's preferred successor Annregret Kramp-Karrenbauerhas as CDU leader has revealed a divided party, hampering the prospects for strong German leadership. Meanwhile, the CDU's broader European family—the European People's Party (EPP)—is torn between more centrist elements and further-right elements like Hungary's Fidesz. Weak leadership in core Europe, divides in the Eurozone between Northerners and Italy and broader tensions between East and West Europe over migration and other issues will create a challenging environment for reforms to fix the union's chronic challenges.

Each Friday, egx clients have the opportunity to submit potential forecast questions to the Superforecaster network. Selected questions are reported back to egx clients each week, with periodic updates provided on previous forecast questions. Good Judgment® helps clients quantify subjective risks for better decisions. Their cutting-edge methods and network of professional Superforecasters deliver accurate and early foresight. Learn more about this forecast and Superforecasting™ techniques here.

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