Back

Superforecaster Fridays: Vox in Spain

egx
15 February 2019

This week's forecast
What percentage of the vote will Vox win in the next general election for Spain's Congress of Deputies?

The Superforecasters currently assign a 52% chance that Vox will win more than 10% of the vote in Spain's next general election, marking a significant surge in support for the far-right party that was polling at just 2% five months ago.
Vox's anti-migrant and unionist platform has gained momentum owing to a significant increase in migrant inflows and the rise in tensions around the Catalan independence drive. On both issues, the ruling Socialist (PSOE) government has been criticized for taking a softer stance.
Early elections will now take place after Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez failed to win parliamentary approval for his 2019 budget on Wednesday, when Catalan secessionist parties abandoned their confidence-and-supply agreement with the minority PSOE government over rising tensions around the high-profile trial of 12 Catalan leaders that began this past week in Madrid.
More broadly, the re-emergence of the Catalonia issue has polarized the political environment and resulted in a parliament that is increasingly split along three axes: the left, the right and regional parties. However, the grouping of right-wing parties including far-right Vox, the right-wing Popular Party and the centrist Citizens have been gaining momentum. All three parties are staunch unionists but differ on social issues. The recent success of these three parties in negotiating a ruling coalition following regional elections in Andalusia in December has highlighted the growing possibility of a national right-wing alliance.

Each Friday, egx clients have the opportunity to submit potential forecast questions to the Superforecaster network. Selected questions are reported back to egx clients each week, with periodic updates provided on previous forecast questions. Good Judgment® helps clients quantify subjective risks for better decisions. Their cutting-edge methods and network of professional Superforecasters deliver accurate and early foresight. Learn more about this forecast and Superforecasting™ techniques here.

Interested in learning more about egX and Good Judgment's joint executive education trainings and custom research? Contact us at [email protected]