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Superforecaster Fridays: Northern Ireland

egx
18 January 2019

This week's forecast
Before 1 January 2020, will the UK and the EU adopt an agreement on which customs territory Northern Ireland will be located in after the end of any Brexit transition period?

The Superforecasters currently assign an 81% probability that the UK and the EU will not adopt an agreement before 1 January 2020 on the status of Northern Ireland's customs policy after the end of a Brexit transition period. In recent weeks, the Superforecasters see the probability of no agreement rising, and the odds that the UK and EU find an agreement this year that will maintain customs policy alignment falling to 14%.
The issue of Northern Ireland's customs policy has proven to be one of the most divisive elements of the current Brexit debate and UK Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal. May envisages a future UK-EU trade agreement solving the customs issue, but the EU has stated that a “backstop” for Northern Ireland would be required in case the UK and EU fail to come to an agreement before talks run out so as to prevent a hard Irish border that would undermine the Good Friday agreement.
MPs across the UK Parliament have criticized the backstop as it would give the EU the final say over Northern Ireland's customs policy in case Brexit talks are inconclusive, but a customs backstop for Northern Ireland is likely to be required even if the UK seeks a Norway Plus model or a permanent customs union.
With the 11PM March 2019 Article 50 negotiations deadline fast approaching, an Article 50 extension appears increasingly inevitable. This would likely in turn push out negotiations on the future UK-EU relationship and the final solution for the Northern Ireland customs issue further beyond 2020, prolonging business uncertainty over whether the UK and EU can solve one of the most divisive issues in the Brexit talks.

Each Friday, egx clients have the opportunity to submit potential forecast questions to the Superforecaster network. Selected questions are reported back to egx clients each week, with periodic updates provided on previous forecast questions. Good Judgment® helps clients quantify subjective risks for better decisions. Their cutting-edge methods and network of professional Superforecasters deliver accurate and early foresight. Learn more about this forecast and Superforecasting™ techniques here.

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