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Superforecaster Fridays: Fed Funds target range

egX
21 December 2018

This week's forecast
What will be the midpoint of the US federal funds target range at the end of 2019?

The Superforecasters currently assign a 71% probability that the midpoint of the US federal funds target range will be more than 2.5% but less than 3.0% at the end of 2019.
At its December FOMC meeting, the Fed announced a 25 bps hike to take the Fed Funds target range to 2.25-2.50%, while also paring back median projections of the number of rate hikes to take place in 2019 from 3 to 2. The US economy is expected to continue growing in 2019 at 2.3% (a downgrade from expectations of 2.5% at the September meeting). This level is still above Fed estimates of long-term trend growth, justifying the need for more rate hikes.
However, the statement and Chair Jay Powell's press conference were notably more cautious on downside risks to both growth and inflation forecasts as a result of slowing global growth, a diminution of fiscal tailwinds, tightening of financial conditions, and the impact of trade conflict on business sentiment.

Each Friday, egx clients have the opportunity to submit potential forecast questions to the Superforecaster network. Selected questions are reported back to egx clients each week, with periodic updates provided on previous forecast questions. Good Judgment® helps clients quantify subjective risks for better decisions. Their cutting-edge methods and network of professional Superforecasters deliver accurate and early foresight. Learn more about this forecast and Superforecasting™ techniques here.

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