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Superforecaster Fridays: Venezuela and Maduro's presidency

egx
25 January 2019

This week's forecast
When will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela?

The Superforecasters currently assign an 75% probability that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro will still be president of Venezuela by 1 January 2020. The Superforecasters assigned this scenario a 93% probability as recently as Tuesday. However, in the aftermath of Wednesday's massive national protests and widespread international recognition of National Assembly President Juan Guaido as interim president of Venezuela, the Superforecasters now see it as marginally more likely that Maduro's reign ends sometime in 2019.
President Nicolas Maduro is in a precarious situation. Despite having been inaugurated for a second six-year term on 10 January, Maduro's grip on power is more teneous than ever before due to rising societal tensions and the coalescing of the opposition around self-appointed President Juan Guaido.
The opposition's momentum has grown throughout January. After Guaido was elected president of the opposition-controlled National Assembly on 5 January, he announced this week that he was officially assuming the powers of interim president amid massive national protests, in part catalyzed by reports of a failed coup against Maduro. Leaders throughout the Americas were quick to recognize Guaido as the official president of Venezuela, bolstering his position within the still-divided opposition.
While a more unified opposition with strong international backing is one important variable, the conditions necessary for regime change to not yet appear to be present. Any change in the status quo will depend on two key factors: the persistence and scale of social unrest and the military's allegiance. While social unrest is rising, the security apparatus still seems both able and willing to use repression to defend the regime.

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