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Superforecaster Fridays: Withdrawal agreement approval by House of Commons

egx
7 December 2018

This week's forecast
Before 15 December 2018, will the House of Commons approve the Withdrawal Agreement of the United Kingdom from the European Union?

The Superforecasters currently assign a 98.2% probability that the UK's House of Commons will not approve the UK-EU Withdrawal Agreement before 15 December 2018. The Superforecasters have become increasingly certain over the past few days, as Prime Minister Theresa May faces significant opposition to her deal—even within her own party—ahead of a parliamentary vote scheduled for next Tuesday, 11 December.
The size of May's parliamentary defeat will have important implications for what will happen next. A narrower loss could give May space to seek a minor re-negotiation with Brussels at the December EU Council next week, after which she could put the deal to a second vote. Significant abstentions could theoretically give May the numbers to pass the deal.
A more significant loss could lead to May's removal as Tory leader, particularly as the recent Grieve amendment (effectively giving Parliament a stronger role to intervene and prevent a no-deal scenario) is making a “Norway plus” model more likely—this option is not precluded by the current negotiations but would cross May's red line on controlling EU migration. The Grieve amendment also increases the odds of a second referendum but faced with a choice between a second referendum and a Norway plus model, many MPs would probably wish to avoid prolonging Brexit uncertainty with another referendum.

Good Judgment recently launched this “lightning question” with a short turnaround, in order to obtain a quick snapshot on this important decision. As a result, there has been only a few days of forecasting on the question thus far.

Each Friday, egx clients have the opportunity to submit potential forecast questions to the Superforecaster network. Selected questions are reported back to egx clients each week, with periodic updates provided on previous forecast questions. Good Judgment® helps clients quantify subjective risks for better decisions. Their cutting-edge methods and network of professional Superforecasters deliver accurate and early foresight. Learn more about this forecast and Superforecasting™ techniques here.

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