This week's superforecast
What percentage of seats will political groups that oppose further European integration hold in the Ninth European Parliament?
- The Superforecasters assign a 51.7% probability that European political groups that oppose further European integration will hold less than 20% of seats in the next European Parliament (the inaugural plenary session is on 2 July).
- While Eurosceptic parties increased their share of seats during the last European elections, they remain divided and it is unclear if many of them will be able to join a European group. A group needs to have a minimum of 25 members of European Parliament (MEPs) from at least seven states. They receive extra funding from the European Union and have guaranteed seats on committees.
- Currently, the Eurosceptics are divided into two groups: the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) with 63 MEPs and the Identity and Democracy group (ID, formerly the Europe of Nations and Freedom) with 73 MEPs. The former Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy no longer exists as the Italian Five Star Movement and the UK's Brexit Party seek to create their own groups. A few far-right parties with Neo-Nazi roots and associated with non-aligned MEPs from Greece and Hungary are unlikely to be invited to join any of these groups.
Read Politics in Pictures: a visual guide to European Parliament election.
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Each Friday, egX clients have the opportunity to submit potential forecast questions to the Superforecaster network. Selected questions are reported back to egx clients each week, with periodic updates provided on previous forecast questions. Good Judgment® helps clients quantify subjective risks for better decisions. Their cutting-edge methods and network of professional Superforecasters deliver accurate and early foresight. Learn more about this forecast and Superforecasting™ techniques here.
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