This week's superforecast
Before 1 February 2020, will the United Kingdom hold a snap general election?
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- The Superforecasters assign 76.4% chance that the UK will not hold a snap election before 1 February 2020.
- Former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson remains the overwhelming favorite to win the backing of the Conservative Party's members. Current Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt's more moderate profile (he backed Remain in the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum) is increasingly at odds with the party's membership.
- Johnson will have very limited time to reach, let alone prepare, an alternative agreement with the EU before the 31 October deadline as he will be constrained by the EU's reorganization and both the EU and UK's recess periods. In addition, it remains unclear how Johnson would find an opening for an alternative agreement. Johnson could be convinced to push a long transition period that goes beyond December 2022, allowing for the preparation of a managed no-deal and a free-trade agreement, but the EU would only very reluctantly accept to renegotiate.
- Ultimately the option of a snap election remains. The parliament will likely push to block no-deal, perhaps even risking a vote of no confidence in Johnson (although Tories remain wary of letting Jeremy Corbyn into office). Johnson could also take the initiative and force a snap election in a bid to increase his majority and have more Johnson-compatible MPs. A no-deal exit remains a significant risk.
Read *Brexit in our Top Risks for 2019 report.
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Each Friday, egX clients have the opportunity to submit potential forecast questions to the Superforecaster network. Selected questions are reported back to egx clients each week, with periodic updates provided on previous forecast questions. Good Judgment® helps clients quantify subjective risks for better decisions. Their cutting-edge methods and network of professional Superforecasters deliver accurate and early foresight. Learn more about this forecast and Superforecasting™ techniques here.
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