This week's superforecast
What will be the end-of-day closing value for the US dollar against the Mexican peso on 29 November 2019?
- The Superforecasters currently assign a 49% probability that the end-of-day closing value for the US dollar against the Mexican peso on 29 November 2019 will be between 18.50 and 19.50 pesos per US dollar.
- On 30 May, US President Donald Trump abruptly announced that he intended to impose tariffs on Mexican imports unless it stepped up its enforcement on illegal migration to the US. The tariffs will first be applied at 5% on 10 June and will be subsequently increased by 5% each month until reaching a maximum level of 25%. They are aimed at curbing the growing flow of Central American refugees that transit Mexico en route to the US.
- Meetings between the US and Mexico are set to continue in the next few days as the two countries approach US President Donald Trump's 10 June deadline for the first round of 5% tariff on all Mexican imports to be implemented. The first round of tariffs will be a close call, but further escalation beyond that is unlikely. In the meantime, the USMCA's ratification in 2019 seems unlikely given the current tensions and the US Congress' tight schedule as campaigning begins in earnest.
- In the past day the rhetoric has notably softened after both Vice President Mike Pence and President Donald Trump seem to have reacted positively to Mexican concessions, including sending 6,000 National Guard members to Mexico's southern border. But Mexico is unlikely to accept being labeled a “safe third country,” and Trump will be tempted to ramp up the attention on immigration as the 2020 election nears. Similar skirmishes with Mexico ahead of the election seem likely.
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