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Superforecaster Fridays: By 31 December 2020, will Italy hold a snap general election?

EURASIA GROUP
20 December 2019

Superforecaster examining whether Italy will hold a snap general election by 31 December 2020

The Superforecasters currently predict that there is a 65% chance Italy will not hold a snap general election before 31 December 2020, up from 53% earlier this month. Additionally, the Superforecasters currently assign a 35% chance that there will be an early election before that date.
In the case of an early election, the League is considered to be the absolute favorite with a 31% chance of winning the most seats, followed by the Democratic Party (1.8%) and the Five Star Movement (1.5%). The chance of a fourth party (Forza Italia, Brothers of Italy, or the newly launched Viva Italia for example) winning the most seats in an early election has declined and remains well below 1%.
The Superforecasters' prediction matches Eurasia Group's view that there is a 30% chance of an election occurring in 2020. Despite the relatively low probability of an early election in 2020, Eurasia Group does not believe that this coalition will last its full term until 2023.
Eurasia Group also expects the far-right opposition to win the next election by a wide margin, especially under the current electoral system, which favors larger parties and coalitions, ie the League. This is the main reason the governing coalition is considering changes to the electoral system.

To learn more, view our previous Superforecaster Fridays: Will Italy hold a snap general election by the end of 2020? Also, look at Politics in pictures: a visual guide to Italy, and read Italian political leaders scramble to avert early elections and Italy's government has collapsed. What happens next?

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Each Friday, Eurasia Group clients have the opportunity to submit potential forecast questions to the Superforecaster network. Selected questions are reported back to clients each week, with periodic updates provided on previous forecast questions. Good Judgment® helps clients quantify subjective risks for better decisions. Their cutting-edge methods and network of professional Superforecasters deliver accurate and early foresight. Learn more about this forecast and Superforecasting™ techniques here.

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Superforecaster Fridays: By 31 December 2020, will Italy hold a snap general election?

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