While there is a new face in Pakistan, some things just will not change

This week will witness the inauguration of Imran Khan as Pakistan's next prime minister, who whether you like him or not, admittedly marks a series of visible shifts for the nation. Let's forget for a second that the army strongly backed his candidacy, or that the civilian government does not exercise much authority over policy, except over matters related to the economy. But at the end of the day, the electorate did in fact overwhelmingly support him.

It's no small matter that Khan built a political outfit and grew it from nothing just a few years ago, with no support, to the largest party in parliament today. Along the way he convinced the youth to join, along with defectors from the country's two well-entrenched parties.  He accordingly was able to absorb an assortment of ideas, themes, and strategies into his campaign. One of which included a tacit push for socialism, a throwback to a similar wave of support in the 1970s (granted he did not use the “S” word). This policy promotion incidentally is taking place at a time when Pakistan's two much larger neighbors to the East are shedding their own socialist pasts, having learned that a command economy cannot help lift a nation out of poverty.

Perhaps most importantly, his presence symbolizes a shift in public sentiment. Unlike the Sharif's and Zardaris, politics is not in his DNA, nor is his party established in and around a particular family and last name. As a result, his ascension should be seen as a “change election” and very much in the vein of what is taking place globally; i.e. throw out the establishment and bring in someone new. Again, and granted, he is backed by the “establishment” which in Pakistan's case is the army. But for voters, he is new and different than the standard bearer parties headed by the Sharifs and Zardaris, and for that reason, he represents change.

But one area we should not expect anything new, innovative, or different, will be his approach towards New Delhi. For the first year of Khan's administration nothing will change in respect to India-Pakistan relations, and if anything, there is potential downside risk to regional security.

First, and this part may be obvious, but India is gearing up for its own election. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has little to gain by engaging with Pakistan at this juncture. With less than 9 months till Indians go to the poll, there is precious little time for a “breakthrough” in ties. If anything, there will be greater opportunity for a massive letdown. So for Modi, why bother if the upside is so limited? If things go awry, the opposition will have field day of bashing Modi's foreign policy. Furthermore, and as we saw in the final days of the Gujarat election, bringing out the Pakistan card still works with some voters when things go down to the wire, and if you are engaged in talks, that may not be an option. Thus, India is unlikely to advance talks until after the election.

Second, Khan's first post-election speech included the standard talking points that his predecessors used. He stated that Kashmir was the root cause of issues between two countries and flagged alleged abuses by the Indian army in the Valley. Both topics have derailed talks in the past, as India also wants to make clear that terrorism is a cause of friction too.

More so, the verbiage indicates that Khan will very much use the Pakistani army's talking points, and why shouldn't he, given that he is their hand-selected leader?

The point is that Khan not only us using the army's language, which is a non-starter for talks, the only way things will change is if the army (and not Khan) choose to change the talking points; and that is not about to happen anytime soon.

But more importantly, even if Khan wanted to chart a different course, he cannot. Each of his predecessors who tried to freelance on India was severely reprimanded in the form of coups, exile, and corruption charges. Sometimes, India has been burned in the process.  It is no secret that the Pakistani army uses cross-border terrorism to further its proxy war with India, but to also “teach a lesson: the governments on both sides of the border that nothing can happen without the Pakistani army's involvement and the military can play spoiler if it chooses to.

Accordingly, while some are jubilant that Khan's arrival marks a new beginning for Pakistan, lets also consider that some things will not change that easily. Specifically, India-Pakistan ties will not substantially pivot because a new leader who is not from the cloth of past prime ministers is suddenly in office. Furthermore, if anything, there is risk for India, particularly if Khan makes the mistake of thinking that his popularity gives him the ability to independently set a new course with India. Of course, given his proximity with the army he will likely not make that mistake. But if he is lulled into a sense of comfort and confidence, and does not seek approval from the army before engaging with India, history has shown that this can be problematic.

This article was originally published on CNBCTV18.com