Eurasia Group is pleased to release the fifth year-ahead outlook in our series of "Top 7 political risks for 2007," in which analysts from the Europe & Eurasia practice consider political risks associated with Russia's petro-confidence, its aggressive policies toward its neighbors, and succession-related struggles.
"The prevailing mindset among the Russian elite is a central cause of increased risk," according to the Outlook. "Russian officials and businessmen feel extremely confident because of the power that flows from being a major energy supplier, huge oil revenues and over six years of high growth rates. Moscow's leaders have adopted often harsh tactics to pursue Russia's - and their own personal - interests, often demonstrating an outsized sense of their power."
According to analysts, this trend will result in growing resource nationalism - defined as state domination of extractive sectors. The state will also likely exert pressure on foreign investors in the strategic sectors through the regulatory process. And a sense of unpredictability will surround the Russian market as major elite groups engage in direct competition with each other for President Vladimir Putin's support in the presidential succession process.
The Top 7 Political Risks:
1. Iran
2. Nigeria
3. Iraq
4. Turkey
5. Russia
6. China
7. Afghanistan/Pakistan
