Research Highlights
TURKEY: EU bid at an impasse
12 November 2008: Relations between Turkey and the EU have historically moved in cycles, and the current distance between them could, at first glance, be seen as merely cyclical. However, while in the past an underlying expectation of closer integration in the long run has prevailed, this no longer appears to be true. Instead, relations have reached a stalemate. The slower the pace and the greater the delays, the more likely it is that barriers to EU entry will grow. Given the adverse political circumstances prevailing in both Turkey and the EU, it will be quite difficult to jumpstart the membership process.
US: Energy reform to be delayed but not derailed
11 November 2008: The downturn of the US economy will constrain President-elect Barack Obama’s ability to immediately deliver on his ambitious energy agenda, and major initiatives such as climate change policy, fuel efficiency, and a renewable portfolio standard will be delayed. But Obama’s pledge to build a clean energy economy will not fade, and numerous energy priorities will be addressed both in a lame-duck economic stimulus package and early in the Obama administration. For the near term, financial constraints will postpone Obama’s push for a federal renewable portfolio standard, but additional federal funding could flow into upgrading the national transmission system and introducing federal energy efficiency mandates.
GLOBAL TRENDS: Fourth Quarter 2008
Global Trends Fourth Quarter 2008
11 November 2008: Eurasia Group and PricewaterhouseCoopers explain how major trends--capital flows, inflation policy, infrastructure, energy, and politics of identity--will shape the global business environment in the coming three to five years, with a focus on emerging and frontier markets.
SYRIA/LEBANON: Fears of new conflict are exaggerated
11 November 2008: Speculation that Syria is preparing for a return to Lebanon is exaggerated. Despite reports of rising tension between the two countries over Syrian accusations that a 27 September terrorist attack in Damascus originated in northern Lebanon, security cooperation is improving and is likely to continue to do so. From Damascus’ perspective, there is no need to occupy Lebanon again. Its ally Hizbullah now has veto power in the government, mitigating risks that Lebanon will either get too close to Saudi Arabia and the West or make overtures toward Israel. Lessening the risk of terrorism coming out of Lebanon is the fact that the West, especially the US, is already supporting the Lebanese military fighting extremists in the north.
SOUTH KOREA: Concessions likely on economic recovery plan
10 November 2008: The global financial crisis and domestic economic troubles have provided the embattled Lee Myung-bak administration with an opportunity to repackage some of its previous reform plans as an economic recovery plan. The national assembly will most likely approve the plan within the next two months. But factional polarization within the ruling Grand National Party and a scandal over abuse of government rice subsidies will limit the government’s ability to approve the package without concessions. To address concerns of politicians outside Seoul, Lee will either have to shelve construction deregulation for now or propose another major fiscal stimulus package specifically targeting regional development.
INDIA: Prospects dim for increased domestic coal supply
7 November 2008: Coal deficiencies pose one of the biggest energy problems in India. Fifty-four out of 80 thermal power plants have coal stocks of less than seven days. There is little prospect of a serious improvement in domestic coal supply unless serious reforms are instituted, including a change in the relationship between Coal India Limited (CIL) and the Ministry of Coal, investments in deep mining, and reform of CIL (technology, equipment, manpower). Coal imports will likely continue to rise steadily over the next five years, and some industry estimates suggest that imports could reach 100 megatons in the next four to five years.
SPECIAL UPDATE: Ian Bremmer outlines key international implications of the global financial crisis
Special Update
お話したいことの第一点めは、今回の危機が米国 の大統領選挙に至る過程の真っただ中で起きたこと は、不幸なタイミングだということである。クライ アントから一番よく耳にしたのは、「何が心配とい って、米政府が事態の厳しさについてまったく何の 予想もしていなかったという点が一番心配なところ だ」というコメントである。各市場は、ブッシュ政 権から金融危機に対する周到な対応プランが発され るのを期待している。だが、大統領選が近付く中、 財務省の主だった政治的任用組は、ほとんどがもう 辞めたか、熱心に職探しをしているところである。
RUSSIA: Cliff Kupchan, a director of the Europe & Eurasia practice, shares his conversation with Prime Minister Putin.
Note on Russia
プーチン首相との会合は、3 時間以上続いたが、話の 焦点はグルジアとの紛争および地政学に集中した。グルジアについては、プーチンは感情的であった。私 は過去3 回の会合で彼を見てきたが、彼がこれほど 感情的になったのを見たのは、ベスランの悲劇の後 の時だけであった。彼は、ロシア側の視点から本件に ついて生々しく語り、グルジアが南オセチアのツヒン バリ市を電撃戦で制圧しようとしたこと、その際多くの ロシア人たちを殺害したということを強調した。また、 ロシアとしては、攻撃に利用されたグルジア内のイン フラをすべて破壊することを余儀なくされたのだと述 べた。そして、このたびのロシアの対応を、第二次世 界大戦時のポーランドおよびソ連に対するドイツの侵 攻への連合国側の対応に喩え、連合国側がドイツと の国境でとどまらずにベルリンを陥落させたことを挙 げた。プーチンは、「サカシビリ大統領はグルジア国 民に対する罪を犯したのであり、グルジア国民が彼を 権力の座から排除することになるであろう」と語った。 そして、ロシアには同大統領と話し合うつもりがなく、また、南オセチアが北オセチアと密接な関係を持ちな がら独立を保つであろうと述べた。