Research Highlights
Letter from Washington (in Japanese): David Gordon discusses policy risks coming out of the US
Letter from Washington
ワシントンは春爛漫。オバマ大統領は医療保険改革法案をめぐる激しい論争が自らに有利な形で決着したことを受け、今度は11 月の中間選挙をにらみつつ、法案成立の成果を国内外で活用しようとしている。医療保険改革法の成立から2 カ月近くたったが、大統領は共和党が予測した有権者の不満の高まりには直面していない。しかし民主党が期待したように、成立によって医療保険改革への支持が高まったわけでもない。現在の大統領にとって最大の追い風は、ギリシャの債務危機と根強い一般の悲観的空気から市場は不安定になっているものの、消費行動と企業業績の両面で米国経済の回復に弾みがついていることを示す指標が増えている点である。民主党は、慎重にではあるが、先週発表された雇用レポートの好調な数値は、経済状況の改善を示すものであるとした。選挙はまだ半年も先であり、相当の雇用が創出されれば、経済はオバマ大統領と民主党にとって政治的負債ではなく、政治的資産に変わる可能性が十分にある。
Foresight Magazine interviews Ian Bremmer on state capitalism (in Japanese)
「フォーサイト」（新潮社）が、イアン・ブレマーとのインタビューを掲載。「国家資本主義」の政治リスクを見極めよ （2010/05/12）
<<2010年に警戒すべき「世界10大リスク」の第5位に「政権交代が起きた日本」を挙げ、日本での注目度を高めた米コンサルティング会社のユーラシア・グループ。たった一人でこの会社を立ち上げ、12年で、100人近い専門家が世界の隅々の地政学的リスクに目を光らせるユニークな企業に育てたイアン・ブレマー代表に、いま世界に起きつつある変化の核心を訊ねた。
http://www.shinchosha.co.jp/foresight/pre/2010/05/114.html
BRAZIL: Rousseff will give positive signals on fiscal policy but disappoint on implementation
24 August 2010: Leading presidential candidate Dilma Rousseff's economic advisors all seem to be in agreement over the need to roll back the pace of expenditure growth in order to help generate conditions for lower real interest rates. As a result, we expect Rousseff to begin her likely term in office signaling a fiscal stance that will be well received by investors. The fact she is headed for a landslide first round victory on 3 October should also help her feel more comfortable about trying to tighten spending. However, while a Rousseff administration will partially succeed in controlling payroll expenditures (most likely by approving a bill already in congress that limits payroll expenditure growth) her willingness and ability to deliver on a fiscal agenda that earnestly rolls back the pace of expenditure growth will be limited. For the same reason, we are skeptical over news reports suggesting her administration will also lower the government's inflation target from 4.5% to 4.0%.
THAILAND: Government moves closer to resolving petrochemical zone dispute
24 August 2010: The government has moved significantly closer to ending a court-ordered stoppage of several billion dollars worth of industrial projects at the country's main petrochemical zone (and the eighth largest in the world), after it released the list of projects that need to comply with environmental and health safeguards. Steady progress is now expected towards having the court lift its injunction within the next few months, which should help ease concerns about industrial regulation in Thailand.
NIGERIA/ENERGY: Force majeure on Bonny light underlines looming threats to oil output ahead of 2011 polls
19 August 2010: Shell this week declared force majeure on up to 100,000 bpd of its Bonny light crude exports for August and September following a spate of oil theft ('bunkering') and sabotage activity in the Niger Delta region since January. A resumption of wide-scale militant attacks on oil and gas infrastructure is unlikely in the short-term. But disgruntlement among former militants is rising. In the run-up to the 2011 elections, we anticipate an increase in opportunistic and organized criminality across the Niger delta, including abductions of expatriate and local oil workers. Further criminal disruptions to oil exports and production are also likely. In addition, politically-motivated insecurity will return if militant demands for resource control and regional development remain unfulfilled.
INDIA/RETAIL: Government's proposal to allow FDI in multi-brand retail evokes mixed responses
18 August 2010: The government's invitation for stakeholder responses to its proposal to allow foreign direct investment (FDI) in multi-brand retail has generated a considerable response from a range of organizations. Many have argued in favor of some FDI in multi-brand retail, calling for a differential approach between the politically sensitive groceries segment and non-food related retail. There is strong opposition to allowing any foreign investment in retail from politically powerful national and state-level trader organizations and some state level chambers of commerce. Overall, the central government appears likely to move towards a policy of some FDI liberalization, although at the state level, investors may encounter procedural and political obstacles in implementing build-out in some regions.
UK/ENERGY POLICY: Forthcoming proposals for a carbon price floor unlikely to spur nuclear revival
11 August 2010: As the UK coalition government embarks on constructing its energy policy, industry focus is on the proposed introduction of a carbon price floor. Though proposals on the design of the price floor are not expected until September, it is difficult to envision the government pushing for a price floor high enough to spur the build-out of new nuclear reactors. Absent a shift in the government's opposition to providing public subsidies for nuclear reactors, Eurasia Group believes that the UK nuclear program will face delays. Further, the carbon price floor may fail to materialize altogether given its expected ineffectiveness at spurring new nuclear projects and the revenue windfalls such a policy could create for existing nuclear and renewable energy projects. As older reactors and coal projects shut down in coming years, the UK market will continue to favor natural gas as replacement power generation capacity.
RUSSIA: Inflation, social unrest and election concerns drive grain export ban
6 August 2010: Prime Minister Vladimir Putin on 5 August announced a ban on grain exports, in response to a severe drought that could destroy as much as a third of the country's grain harvest. The ban, which takes effect on 15 August and is slated to be in place through the end of the year, stems from government concerns about the potential impact of rising food prices, and possible resultant social unrest, in the run up to the election cycle. Looking forward, regulatory risk is rising for the food production and retail sectors in particular.
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