Risk 5: Russia still rogue

Russia is the world's leading rogue power, now by a large margin following the collapse of Iran's ability to project power (please see Top Risk #6: Iran on the ropes). This year, Moscow will pursue more policies that undermine the US-led global order, despite a likely ceasefire in Ukraine. Russia will take hostile, asymmetric steps against EU countries—particularly those on the front lines—as they continue to support anti-Russian policies. It will also continue its role as leader of the Axis of Rogues (please see last year's Top Risk #5: Axis of Rogues)—the strategic military partnership with Iran and North Korea that could significantly disrupt global stability this year.

Putin's revisionist goals toward the US-led West are a core driver of his foreign policy. The Russian president strongly objects to NATO expansion and Russia's exclusion from the European security system. These grievances lie behind Putin's desire to undermine Western democracies and provoke chaos in the US-led Western alliance system.

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