Risk 6: Iran on the ropes

The Middle East will remain a combustible environment in 2025, for one big reason: Iran hasn't been this weak in decades.

Iran's geopolitical position has been dealt a series of devastating blows since the 7 October attacks. First, its client Hamas was defeated by Israel's relentless offensive in Gaza. Then, the crown jewel of its proxy network, Hezbollah, was nearly wiped out after losing its entire leadership and thousands of its fighters to Israeli air strikes, before agreeing to a ceasefire and withdrawing from southern Lebanon last November. Weeks later, Iran's ally Bashar al Assad was suddenly driven from power in Syria. With this one-two-three punch, the Axis of Resistance was effectively destroyed. Though Iran still has some (albeit less than total) control over Shia militias in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen, its decades-long strategy of relying on proxies to deter Israel and project power regionally has run its course.

Iran retains a formidable arsenal of missiles and drones. But they're of limited utility against Israel, over a thousand miles away and well-defended thanks to its overwhelming military and technological superiority as well as US support. Iran also has its nuclear program, which has made it a threshold state with the ability to “dash to a bomb” in about six months—though it would likely need at least a year to develop a warhead small enough to fit onto a missile. But any move to build a weapon would likely be quickly detected and provoke swift American and Israeli preemptive strikes. Simply put, Iran is a sitting duck.


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