OverviewWe are heading back to the law of the jungle. A world where the strongest do what they can, while the weakest are condemned to suffer what they must. And the former—whether states, companies, or individuals—can't be trusted to act in the interest of those they have power over.
It's not a sustainable trajectory.
Risk 1: The G-Zero wins
We’re entering a uniquely dangerous period of world history on par with the 1930s and the early Cold War.
Risk 2: Rule of Don
The erosion of independent checks on executive power and the rule of law will increase the extent to which the US policy landscape depends on the decisions of one powerful man.
Risk 3: US-China breakdown
Trump's return to office will unleash an unmanaged decoupling in the world’s most important geopolitical relationship.
Risk 4: Trumponomics
Donald Trump is about to inherit a robust US economy, but his policies will undermine its strength this year through higher inflation and reduced growth.
Risk 5: Russia still rogue
Russia will do more than any other country to subvert the global order in 2025.
Risk 6: Iran on the ropes
The Middle East will remain a combustible environment in 2025, for one big reason: Iran hasn’t been this weak in decades.
Risk 7: Beggar thy world
The US and China will export disruption to everyone else this year, short-circuiting the global economic recovery and accelerating geoeconomic fragmentation.
Risk 8: AI unbound
As most governments opt for lighter-touch regulation and international cooperation falters, AI capabilities and risks will continue to grow unchecked.
Risk 9: Ungoverned spaces
The deepening G-Zero will leave many people, places, and spaces thinly governed and forgotten.
Risk 10: Mexican standoff
Mexico will face formidable challenges this year in its relations with the US at a time of ongoing constitutional overhauls and fiscal stresses at home.
Red Herrings
Trump fails. Europe breaks. The global energy transition stalls. Our 2025 Red Herrings.
Country-Specific Implications
These addendums for Brazil, Canada, Europe, and Japan further illustrate how global risks play out in different parts of the world, with specific implications for governments and businesses.